Can auction data be trusted?
APM publishes auction activity results for the Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide capital cities every Saturday evening, providing a snapshot of how demand and supply in the auction market is behaving and as a leading indicator for the overall property market. Auction activity for the other capital cities is also monitored and made available by mid week. APM publishes Auction Clearance Rates ACR on the Saturday evening, based on the majority sample collected on that day, for release across various publications on the Sunday, while the process of collecting results continues throughout the week.
When reporting auction activity, APM monitors the following five key elements that can occur to properties listed for auction.
These are. Including some or all of these five elements of auction activity in the calculation used will affect the reported clearance rate.
Sold at auction plus sold prior, over all reported plus withdrawn. APM includes withdrawn auctions in the calculation to prevent any bias in the clearance rate caused by properties being withdrawn due to expectations it may not sell or fail to achieve an expected price. I also examined in detail the weekly listings of property sold, each transaction is coded in line with the APM method.
Can auction data be trusted? - MacroBusiness
I also saw a small number of what appeared to be duplicate transactions across weeks, but not a significant number so I think we can lay to rest the idea that the results may be being inflated by duplicating the same results across multiple weeks. Our auction data is collected directly from the industry, via a variety of channels including our call centre based in Adelaide, results which are pushed through from agents via our app or portal, or via direct data feeds from agency groups.
Each week we publish three sets of clearance rates: Saturday night, Sunday morning CoreLogic media release and final results on Thursday morning. The collection of auction results progressively improves across each release as we receive more results from the industry.
There has been some discussion that auction results which are not reported each week must also be unsuccessful auctions intentionally withheld by the agent. Regardless, we publish our results with full transparency, showing the number of auctions, together with the number of results collected segmented by successful auctions sold before, at or prior to auction and unsuccessful results unsold, vendor bid, withdrawn.
For a long time there has been discussion around whether auction results are accurate or not. My take out of that is there may be some holding back of failed sales by some agents, but there is no way to triangulate the quantum of the problem, and there is no mandatory reporting of results.
So the data must be seen as a best endeavours exercise. Tim also makes an excellent point that the trends really tell the tale. So, one final piece of the puzzle is some analysis we have done of the results, using both the percentage of all listings and sold property.
I have charted the monthly trends for the second half of last year. Here is the plot for Sydney. You should do your own research to establish the most suitable data for your needs. This information is useful if you are a seller or a buyer and want to check an auction result for a particular sale, or compare property prices. Latest auction results may be listed in a single report that covers all suburbs, or at the end of a suburb listing. Weekly auction results do not give a full picture of property prices, as not all are reported and private sales are not included.
Before you bid at auction, attend other auctions. Find out which auctioneer will be selling the property that interests you and attend their auctions. This will give you an insight into their style and tactics. Take the emotion out of the process — research comparable property prices, know how much you are willing to pay for that particular property and stick to your limit.
For more information, view our Buying property at auction page. To estimate the market value of your property, check newspaper sales reports and search the internet for recent sale prices of similar properties.
Before you decide to sell by auction or private sale, think carefully about the features of your property and its location, as well as your timeframe and personal preference.
For more information, view our Property sales method and price page. This information can help you set an asking price for a property you are selling, or to decide how much to offer for a property you are interested in buying, based on the selling price of similar properties in the same suburb or surrounding area.
Suburb sales reports generally provide historical sale prices for an area for the last 12 months, although some reports have up to five years of sales data. Suburb sales reports list auction and private sale prices for houses and units, along with addresses and sale dates. A report may also have information about the:.
Reports may not be available for all suburbs or postcodes and there may be a limit on the number of properties included. Make a realistic offer based on your understanding of the value of the property. Be careful that your offer is not too low — if another keen buyer makes a higher offer, the seller may accept it and enter into a contract with the other buyer. Try to make your offer as attractive as possible to the seller in terms of price, settlement period and conditions.
For more information view our Buying property by private sale page. Get a number of agents to assess your property and consider all aspects of their service.
Do not choose an agent only because they offer the highest estimated selling price for your property. Before you sign an authority to sell, the agent must advise you that all commissions and other outgoings are negotiable. Hire an Expert Local Web Designers. Expert Services Local Web Designers. Domain Name Aftermarket. Download the Investor App and add domains to your watchlist to negotiate offers on the go.
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Real Estate Victoria residential property Print article. Fewer than half of all properties sell at auction as credit hits spring market. Michael Bleby Senior Reporter. Updated Oct 14, — 3. License article. Michael Bleby writes on real estate specialising in construction, infrastructure, architecture based in our Melbourne newsroom. Connect with Michael on Instagram and Twitter.